INN Hotels Project¶

Context¶

A significant number of hotel bookings are called-off due to cancellations or no-shows. The typical reasons for cancellations include change of plans, scheduling conflicts, etc. This is often made easier by the option to do so free of charge or preferably at a low cost which is beneficial to hotel guests but it is a less desirable and possibly revenue-diminishing factor for hotels to deal with. Such losses are particularly high on last-minute cancellations.

The new technologies involving online booking channels have dramatically changed customers’ booking possibilities and behavior. This adds a further dimension to the challenge of how hotels handle cancellations, which are no longer limited to traditional booking and guest characteristics.

The cancellation of bookings impact a hotel on various fronts:

  • Loss of resources (revenue) when the hotel cannot resell the room.
  • Additional costs of distribution channels by increasing commissions or paying for publicity to help sell these rooms.
  • Lowering prices last minute, so the hotel can resell a room, resulting in reducing the profit margin.
  • Human resources to make arrangements for the guests.

Objective¶

The increasing number of cancellations calls for a Machine Learning based solution that can help in predicting which booking is likely to be canceled. INN Hotels Group has a chain of hotels in Portugal, they are facing problems with the high number of booking cancellations and have reached out to your firm for data-driven solutions. You as a data scientist have to analyze the data provided to find which factors have a high influence on booking cancellations, build a predictive model that can predict which booking is going to be canceled in advance, and help in formulating profitable policies for cancellations and refunds.

Data Description¶

The data contains the different attributes of customers' booking details. The detailed data dictionary is given below.

Data Dictionary

  • Booking_ID: unique identifier of each booking
  • no_of_adults: Number of adults
  • no_of_children: Number of Children
  • no_of_weekend_nights: Number of weekend nights (Saturday or Sunday) the guest stayed or booked to stay at the hotel
  • no_of_week_nights: Number of week nights (Monday to Friday) the guest stayed or booked to stay at the hotel
  • type_of_meal_plan: Type of meal plan booked by the customer:
    • Not Selected – No meal plan selected
    • Meal Plan 1 – Breakfast
    • Meal Plan 2 – Half board (breakfast and one other meal)
    • Meal Plan 3 – Full board (breakfast, lunch, and dinner)
  • required_car_parking_space: Does the customer require a car parking space? (0 - No, 1- Yes)
  • room_type_reserved: Type of room reserved by the customer. The values are ciphered (encoded) by INN Hotels.
  • lead_time: Number of days between the date of booking and the arrival date
  • arrival_year: Year of arrival date
  • arrival_month: Month of arrival date
  • arrival_date: Date of the month
  • market_segment_type: Market segment designation.
  • repeated_guest: Is the customer a repeated guest? (0 - No, 1- Yes)
  • no_of_previous_cancellations: Number of previous bookings that were canceled by the customer prior to the current booking
  • no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled: Number of previous bookings not canceled by the customer prior to the current booking
  • avg_price_per_room: Average price per day of the reservation; prices of the rooms are dynamic. (in euros)
  • no_of_special_requests: Total number of special requests made by the customer (e.g. high floor, view from the room, etc)
  • booking_status: Flag indicating if the booking was canceled or not.

Importing necessary libraries and data¶

In [1]:
# this will help in making the Python code more structured automatically (help adhere to good coding practices)
#%load_ext nb_black

import warnings

warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
from statsmodels.tools.sm_exceptions import ConvergenceWarning

warnings.simplefilter("ignore", ConvergenceWarning)

# Libraries to help with reading and manipulating data
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np

# libaries to help with data visualization
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns

# Removes the limit for the number of displayed columns
pd.set_option("display.max_columns", None)
# Sets the limit for the number of displayed rows
pd.set_option("display.max_rows", 200)
# setting the precision of floating numbers to 5 decimal points
pd.set_option("display.float_format", lambda x: "%.5f" % x)

# Library to split data
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

# To build model for prediction
import statsmodels.stats.api as sms
from statsmodels.stats.outliers_influence import variance_inflation_factor
import statsmodels.api as sm
from statsmodels.tools.tools import add_constant
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier
from sklearn import tree

# To tune different models
from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV


# To get diferent metric scores
from sklearn.metrics import (
    f1_score,
    accuracy_score,
    recall_score,
    precision_score,
    confusion_matrix,
    ConfusionMatrixDisplay,
    roc_auc_score,
    precision_recall_curve,
    roc_curve,
    make_scorer,
)

Data Overview¶

  • Observations
  • Sanity checks
In [2]:
# import dataset
from google.colab import files
import io

try:
  uploaded
except NameError:
  uploaded = files.upload()
Upload widget is only available when the cell has been executed in the current browser session. Please rerun this cell to enable.
Saving INNHotelsGroup.csv to INNHotelsGroup.csv
In [3]:
# to load dataset
ihg = pd.read_csv('/content/INNHotelsGroup.csv')
In [4]:
# copy dataset
data = ihg.copy()
In [5]:
# view first few rows of data
data.head()
Out[5]:
Booking_ID no_of_adults no_of_children no_of_weekend_nights no_of_week_nights type_of_meal_plan required_car_parking_space room_type_reserved lead_time arrival_year arrival_month arrival_date market_segment_type repeated_guest no_of_previous_cancellations no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled avg_price_per_room no_of_special_requests booking_status
0 INN00001 2 0 1 2 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 224 2017 10 2 Offline 0 0 0 65.00000 0 Not_Canceled
1 INN00002 2 0 2 3 Not Selected 0 Room_Type 1 5 2018 11 6 Online 0 0 0 106.68000 1 Not_Canceled
2 INN00003 1 0 2 1 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 1 2018 2 28 Online 0 0 0 60.00000 0 Canceled
3 INN00004 2 0 0 2 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 211 2018 5 20 Online 0 0 0 100.00000 0 Canceled
4 INN00005 2 0 1 1 Not Selected 0 Room_Type 1 48 2018 4 11 Online 0 0 0 94.50000 0 Canceled
In [6]:
# view last few rows of data
data.tail()
Out[6]:
Booking_ID no_of_adults no_of_children no_of_weekend_nights no_of_week_nights type_of_meal_plan required_car_parking_space room_type_reserved lead_time arrival_year arrival_month arrival_date market_segment_type repeated_guest no_of_previous_cancellations no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled avg_price_per_room no_of_special_requests booking_status
36270 INN36271 3 0 2 6 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 4 85 2018 8 3 Online 0 0 0 167.80000 1 Not_Canceled
36271 INN36272 2 0 1 3 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 228 2018 10 17 Online 0 0 0 90.95000 2 Canceled
36272 INN36273 2 0 2 6 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 148 2018 7 1 Online 0 0 0 98.39000 2 Not_Canceled
36273 INN36274 2 0 0 3 Not Selected 0 Room_Type 1 63 2018 4 21 Online 0 0 0 94.50000 0 Canceled
36274 INN36275 2 0 1 2 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 207 2018 12 30 Offline 0 0 0 161.67000 0 Not_Canceled
In [7]:
# view dimensions of data
data.shape
Out[7]:
(36275, 19)
  • There are 36275 observations and 19 columns in the dataset
In [8]:
# view the data types of the columns for the dataset
data.info()
<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 36275 entries, 0 to 36274
Data columns (total 19 columns):
 #   Column                                Non-Null Count  Dtype  
---  ------                                --------------  -----  
 0   Booking_ID                            36275 non-null  object 
 1   no_of_adults                          36275 non-null  int64  
 2   no_of_children                        36275 non-null  int64  
 3   no_of_weekend_nights                  36275 non-null  int64  
 4   no_of_week_nights                     36275 non-null  int64  
 5   type_of_meal_plan                     36275 non-null  object 
 6   required_car_parking_space            36275 non-null  int64  
 7   room_type_reserved                    36275 non-null  object 
 8   lead_time                             36275 non-null  int64  
 9   arrival_year                          36275 non-null  int64  
 10  arrival_month                         36275 non-null  int64  
 11  arrival_date                          36275 non-null  int64  
 12  market_segment_type                   36275 non-null  object 
 13  repeated_guest                        36275 non-null  int64  
 14  no_of_previous_cancellations          36275 non-null  int64  
 15  no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled  36275 non-null  int64  
 16  avg_price_per_room                    36275 non-null  float64
 17  no_of_special_requests                36275 non-null  int64  
 18  booking_status                        36275 non-null  object 
dtypes: float64(1), int64(13), object(5)
memory usage: 5.3+ MB
  • Memory usuage: 5.3MB
  • int64: no_of_adults, no_of_children, no_of_weekend_nights, no_of_week_nights, required_car_parking_space, lead_time, arrival_year, arrival_month, arrival_date, repeated_guest, no_of_previous_cancellations, no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled, no_of_special_requests
  • object: Booking_ID, type_of_meal_plan, room_type_reserved, market_segment_type, booking_status
  • float64: avg_price_per_room
In [9]:
# check duplicate values
data.duplicated().sum()
Out[9]:
0
  • no duplicates
In [10]:
# check for missing values
data.isnull().sum()
Out[10]:
Booking_ID                              0
no_of_adults                            0
no_of_children                          0
no_of_weekend_nights                    0
no_of_week_nights                       0
type_of_meal_plan                       0
required_car_parking_space              0
room_type_reserved                      0
lead_time                               0
arrival_year                            0
arrival_month                           0
arrival_date                            0
market_segment_type                     0
repeated_guest                          0
no_of_previous_cancellations            0
no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled    0
avg_price_per_room                      0
no_of_special_requests                  0
booking_status                          0
dtype: int64
  • no missing values
In [11]:
# statistical summary
data.describe().T
Out[11]:
count mean std min 25% 50% 75% max
no_of_adults 36275.00000 1.84496 0.51871 0.00000 2.00000 2.00000 2.00000 4.00000
no_of_children 36275.00000 0.10528 0.40265 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 10.00000
no_of_weekend_nights 36275.00000 0.81072 0.87064 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 2.00000 7.00000
no_of_week_nights 36275.00000 2.20430 1.41090 0.00000 1.00000 2.00000 3.00000 17.00000
required_car_parking_space 36275.00000 0.03099 0.17328 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000
lead_time 36275.00000 85.23256 85.93082 0.00000 17.00000 57.00000 126.00000 443.00000
arrival_year 36275.00000 2017.82043 0.38384 2017.00000 2018.00000 2018.00000 2018.00000 2018.00000
arrival_month 36275.00000 7.42365 3.06989 1.00000 5.00000 8.00000 10.00000 12.00000
arrival_date 36275.00000 15.59700 8.74045 1.00000 8.00000 16.00000 23.00000 31.00000
repeated_guest 36275.00000 0.02564 0.15805 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000
no_of_previous_cancellations 36275.00000 0.02335 0.36833 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 13.00000
no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled 36275.00000 0.15341 1.75417 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 58.00000
avg_price_per_room 36275.00000 103.42354 35.08942 0.00000 80.30000 99.45000 120.00000 540.00000
no_of_special_requests 36275.00000 0.61966 0.78624 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 5.00000
  • average arrival month is mid-July (7.4)
  • average arrival date is 15.597 or middle of the month 15 or 16th
  • There are few repeated guests
  • average price per room is 103.42
In [12]:
sns.set_style('darkgrid')
data.hist(figsize=(15,10))
plt.show()
  • most stays at the hotel were with 2 adults
  • most stays at the hotel were with 0 children
  • average price per room is between 100 and 200
  • most people didn't have any special requests

Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)¶

  • EDA is an important part of any project involving data.
  • It is important to investigate and understand the data better before building a model with it.
  • A few questions have been mentioned below which will help you approach the analysis in the right manner and generate insights from the data.
  • A thorough analysis of the data, in addition to the questions mentioned below, should be done.
In [13]:
# dropping Booking_ID column
data.drop(['Booking_ID'], axis='columns', inplace=True)
In [14]:
# view first few rows of data
data.head()
Out[14]:
no_of_adults no_of_children no_of_weekend_nights no_of_week_nights type_of_meal_plan required_car_parking_space room_type_reserved lead_time arrival_year arrival_month arrival_date market_segment_type repeated_guest no_of_previous_cancellations no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled avg_price_per_room no_of_special_requests booking_status
0 2 0 1 2 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 224 2017 10 2 Offline 0 0 0 65.00000 0 Not_Canceled
1 2 0 2 3 Not Selected 0 Room_Type 1 5 2018 11 6 Online 0 0 0 106.68000 1 Not_Canceled
2 1 0 2 1 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 1 2018 2 28 Online 0 0 0 60.00000 0 Canceled
3 2 0 0 2 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 211 2018 5 20 Online 0 0 0 100.00000 0 Canceled
4 2 0 1 1 Not Selected 0 Room_Type 1 48 2018 4 11 Online 0 0 0 94.50000 0 Canceled
In [14]:
 

Data Preprocessing¶

  • Missing value treatment (if needed)
  • Feature engineering (if needed)
  • Outlier detection and treatment (if needed)
  • Preparing data for modeling
  • Any other preprocessing steps (if needed)

EDA¶

  • It is a good idea to explore the data once again after manipulating it.
In [15]:
# view statistical summary
data.describe(include='all').T
Out[15]:
count unique top freq mean std min 25% 50% 75% max
no_of_adults 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 1.84496 0.51871 0.00000 2.00000 2.00000 2.00000 4.00000
no_of_children 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 0.10528 0.40265 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 10.00000
no_of_weekend_nights 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 0.81072 0.87064 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 2.00000 7.00000
no_of_week_nights 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 2.20430 1.41090 0.00000 1.00000 2.00000 3.00000 17.00000
type_of_meal_plan 36275 4 Meal Plan 1 27835 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
required_car_parking_space 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 0.03099 0.17328 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000
room_type_reserved 36275 7 Room_Type 1 28130 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
lead_time 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 85.23256 85.93082 0.00000 17.00000 57.00000 126.00000 443.00000
arrival_year 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 2017.82043 0.38384 2017.00000 2018.00000 2018.00000 2018.00000 2018.00000
arrival_month 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 7.42365 3.06989 1.00000 5.00000 8.00000 10.00000 12.00000
arrival_date 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 15.59700 8.74045 1.00000 8.00000 16.00000 23.00000 31.00000
market_segment_type 36275 5 Online 23214 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
repeated_guest 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 0.02564 0.15805 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000
no_of_previous_cancellations 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 0.02335 0.36833 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 13.00000
no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 0.15341 1.75417 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 58.00000
avg_price_per_room 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 103.42354 35.08942 0.00000 80.30000 99.45000 120.00000 540.00000
no_of_special_requests 36275.00000 NaN NaN NaN 0.61966 0.78624 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 5.00000
booking_status 36275 2 Not_Canceled 24390 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
In [16]:
def histogram_boxplot(data, feature, figsize=(15, 10), kde=False, bins=None):
    """
    Boxplot and histogram combined

    data: dataframe
    feature: dataframe column
    figsize: size of figure (default (15,10))
    kde: whether to show the density curve (default False)
    bins: number of bins for histogram (default None)
    """
    f2, (ax_box2, ax_hist2) = plt.subplots(
        nrows=2,  # Number of rows of the subplot grid= 2
        sharex=True,  # x-axis will be shared among all subplots
        gridspec_kw={"height_ratios": (0.25, 0.75)},
        figsize=figsize,
    )  # creating the 2 subplots
    sns.boxplot(
        data=data, x=feature, ax=ax_box2, showmeans=True, color="violet"
    )  # boxplot will be created and a triangle will indicate the mean value of the column
    sns.histplot(
        data=data, x=feature, kde=kde, ax=ax_hist2, bins=bins
    ) if bins else sns.histplot(
        data=data, x=feature, kde=kde, ax=ax_hist2
    )  # For histogram
    ax_hist2.axvline(
        data[feature].mean(), color="green", linestyle="--"
    )  # Add mean to the histogram
    ax_hist2.axvline(
        data[feature].median(), color="black", linestyle="-"
    )  # Add median to the histogram
In [17]:
# histogram_boxplot on lead_time
histogram_boxplot(data, 'lead_time')
  • the mean lead_time is noticeably higher than the median lead_time
In [18]:
# histogram_boxplot on average price per room
histogram_boxplot(data, 'avg_price_per_room')
  • average price per room has a median and mean that are almost identical
In [19]:
data[data['avg_price_per_room'] == 0]
Out[19]:
no_of_adults no_of_children no_of_weekend_nights no_of_week_nights type_of_meal_plan required_car_parking_space room_type_reserved lead_time arrival_year arrival_month arrival_date market_segment_type repeated_guest no_of_previous_cancellations no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled avg_price_per_room no_of_special_requests booking_status
63 1 0 0 1 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 2 2017 9 10 Complementary 0 0 0 0.00000 1 Not_Canceled
145 1 0 0 2 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 13 2018 6 1 Complementary 1 3 5 0.00000 1 Not_Canceled
209 1 0 0 0 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 4 2018 2 27 Complementary 0 0 0 0.00000 1 Not_Canceled
266 1 0 0 2 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 1 2017 8 12 Complementary 1 0 1 0.00000 1 Not_Canceled
267 1 0 2 1 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 4 2017 8 23 Complementary 0 0 0 0.00000 1 Not_Canceled
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
35983 1 0 0 1 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 7 0 2018 6 7 Complementary 1 4 17 0.00000 1 Not_Canceled
36080 1 0 1 1 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 7 0 2018 3 21 Complementary 1 3 15 0.00000 1 Not_Canceled
36114 1 0 0 1 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 1 1 2018 3 2 Online 0 0 0 0.00000 0 Not_Canceled
36217 2 0 2 1 Meal Plan 1 0 Room_Type 2 3 2017 8 9 Online 0 0 0 0.00000 2 Not_Canceled
36250 1 0 0 2 Meal Plan 2 0 Room_Type 1 6 2017 12 10 Online 0 0 0 0.00000 0 Not_Canceled

545 rows × 18 columns

In [20]:
# view average price per room broken down into market segment types
data.loc[data['avg_price_per_room'] == 0, 'market_segment_type'].value_counts()
Out[20]:
Complementary    354
Online           191
Name: market_segment_type, dtype: int64
  • Complementary market segment type had an average price of 354
  • Online market segment type had an average price of 191
In [21]:
# 25th quantile
Q1 = data['avg_price_per_room'].quantile(0.25)
In [22]:
# 75th quantile
Q3 = data['avg_price_per_room'].quantile(0.75)
In [23]:
# Inner Quantile Range (IQR)
IQR = Q3 - Q1
In [24]:
# upper whisker calculation
upper_whisker = Q3 + 1.5 * IQR
upper_whisker
Out[24]:
179.55
  • Upper Whisker average price per room is 179.55
In [25]:
# lower whisker calculation
lower_whisker = Q1 - 1.5 * IQR
lower_whisker
Out[25]:
20.749999999999993
  • Lower whisker average price per room is 20.75
In [26]:
# equating the outliers with the value of the upper whisker
data.loc[data['avg_price_per_room'] >= 500, 'avg_price_per_room'] = upper_whisker
In [27]:
# histogram_boxplot on number of previous booking cancellations
histogram_boxplot(data, 'no_of_previous_cancellations')
  • There were a minimal number of previous cancellations
In [28]:
# histogram_boxplot on number of previous bookings not canceled
histogram_boxplot(data, 'no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled')
  • There is an overwhelming amount of customers with no previous bookings or did not cancel a previous booking
In [29]:
# function to create labeled barplots


def labeled_barplot(data, feature, perc=False, n=None):
    """
    Barplot with percentage at the top

    data: dataframe
    feature: dataframe column
    perc: whether to display percentages instead of count (default is False)
    n: displays the top n category levels (default is None, i.e., display all levels)
    """

    total = len(data[feature])  # length of the column
    count = data[feature].nunique()
    if n is None:
        plt.figure(figsize=(count + 2, 6))
    else:
        plt.figure(figsize=(n + 2, 6))

    plt.xticks(rotation=90, fontsize=15)
    ax = sns.countplot(
        data=data,
        x=feature,
        palette="Paired",
        order=data[feature].value_counts().index[:n],
    )

    for p in ax.patches:
        if perc == True:
            label = "{:.1f}%".format(
                100 * p.get_height() / total
            )  # percentage of each class of the category
        else:
            label = p.get_height()  # count of each level of the category

        x = p.get_x() + p.get_width() / 2  # width of the plot
        y = p.get_height()  # height of the plot

        ax.annotate(
            label,
            (x, y),
            ha="center",
            va="center",
            size=12,
            xytext=(0, 5),
            textcoords="offset points",
        )  # annotate the percentage

    plt.show()  # show the plot
In [30]:
# labeled_barplot on number of children
labeled_barplot (data, 'no_of_children')
  • 1618 guests had 1 child
  • 1058 guests had 2 children
  • 33577 guests had 0 children
  • 23 guests had 3 or more children
In [31]:
# include 9 and 10 children with 3 children
data['no_of_children'] = data['no_of_children'].replace([9,10], 3)
In [32]:
# labeled_barplot on number of children (updated)
labeled_barplot (data, 'no_of_children')
  • 22 guests had 3 or more children
In [33]:
# labeled_barplot on number of week nights
labeled_barplot(data, 'no_of_week_nights')
  • 11444 guests stayed 2 week nights
  • 9488 guests stayed 1 week night
  • 7839 guests stayed 3 week nights
In [34]:
# labeled_barplot on number of weekend nights
labeled_barplot(data, 'no_of_weekend_nights')
  • 16872 guests didn't stay over the weekend
  • 9995 guests stayed 1 weekend night
  • 9071 guests stayed 2 weekend nights
In [35]:
# labeled_barplot on the number of required parking spaces
labeled_barplot(data, 'required_car_parking_space')
  • An overwhelming majority of guests did not require a parking space
In [36]:
# labeled_barplot on the type of meal plan
labeled_barplot(data, 'type_of_meal_plan')
  • 27835 guests had Meal Plan 1
  • 5130 guests did not select a meal plan
  • 3305 guests had Meal Plan 2
In [37]:
# labeled_barplot on room type reserved
labeled_barplot(data, 'room_type_reserved')
  • 28130 guests reserved Room Type 1
  • 6057 guests reserved Room Type 4
  • 966 guests reserved Room Type 6
  • 692 guests reserved Room Type 2
In [38]:
# labeled_barplot on arrival month
labeled_barplot(data, 'arrival_month')
  • 5317 arrived in Month 10
  • 4611 arrived in Month 9
  • 3813 arrived in Month 8
  • 3203 arrived in Month 6
  • 3201 arrived in Month 12
  • 2980 arrived in Month 11
  • 2920 arrived in Month 7
In [39]:
# labeled_barplot on market segment type
labeled_barplot(data, 'market_segment_type')
  • 23214 were of the Online market segment type
  • 10528 were of the Offline market segment type
  • 2017 were of the Corporate market segment type
  • 391 were of the Complementary market segment type
  • 125 were of the Aviation market segment type
In [40]:
# labeled_barplot on number of special requests
labeled_barplot(data, 'no_of_special_requests')
  • 19777 made 0 special requests
  • 11373 made 1 special request
  • 4364 made 2 special requests
  • 675 made 3 special requests
  • 86 made 4 or more special requests
In [41]:
# labeled_barplot on booking status
labeled_barplot(data, 'booking_status')
  • 24390 did not cancel booked reservation
  • 11885 canceled booked reservation
In [42]:
# encoding not_canceled bookings with 0 and canceled bookings with 1
data["booking_status"] = data["booking_status"].apply(
    lambda x: 1 if x == "Canceled" else 0
)
In [43]:
# labeled_barplot on booking status (updated)
labeled_barplot(data, 'booking_status')
  • updated cancellations to '1' and not_canceled to '0'
In [44]:
cols_list = data.select_dtypes(include=np.number).columns.tolist()

plt.figure(figsize=(12, 7))
sns.heatmap(
    data[cols_list].corr(), annot=True, vmin=-1, vmax=1, fmt=".2f", cmap="Spectral"
)
plt.show()
  • There is little correlation amongst variables
In [45]:
### function to plot distributions wrt target


def distribution_plot_wrt_target(data, predictor, target):

    fig, axs = plt.subplots(2, 2, figsize=(12, 10))

    target_uniq = data[target].unique()

    axs[0, 0].set_title("Distribution of target for target=" + str(target_uniq[0]))
    sns.histplot(
        data=data[data[target] == target_uniq[0]],
        x=predictor,
        kde=True,
        ax=axs[0, 0],
        color="teal",
        stat="density",
    )

    axs[0, 1].set_title("Distribution of target for target=" + str(target_uniq[1]))
    sns.histplot(
        data=data[data[target] == target_uniq[1]],
        x=predictor,
        kde=True,
        ax=axs[0, 1],
        color="orange",
        stat="density",
    )

    axs[1, 0].set_title("Boxplot w.r.t target")
    sns.boxplot(data=data, x=target, y=predictor, ax=axs[1, 0], palette="gist_rainbow")

    axs[1, 1].set_title("Boxplot (without outliers) w.r.t target")
    sns.boxplot(
        data=data,
        x=target,
        y=predictor,
        ax=axs[1, 1],
        showfliers=False,
        palette="gist_rainbow",
    )

    plt.tight_layout()
    plt.show()
In [46]:
def stacked_barplot(data, predictor, target):
    """
    Print the category counts and plot a stacked bar chart

    data: dataframe
    predictor: independent variable
    target: target variable
    """
    count = data[predictor].nunique()
    sorter = data[target].value_counts().index[-1]
    tab1 = pd.crosstab(data[predictor], data[target], margins=True).sort_values(
        by=sorter, ascending=False
    )
    print(tab1)
    print("-" * 120)
    tab = pd.crosstab(data[predictor], data[target], normalize="index").sort_values(
        by=sorter, ascending=False
    )
    tab.plot(kind="bar", stacked=True, figsize=(count + 5, 5))
    plt.legend(
        loc="lower left", frameon=False,
    )
    plt.legend(loc="upper left", bbox_to_anchor=(1, 1))
    plt.show()

Leading Questions:

  1. What are the busiest months in the hotel?
  2. Which market segment do most of the guests come from?
  3. Hotel rates are dynamic and change according to demand and customer demographics. What are the differences in room prices in different market segments?
  4. What percentage of bookings are canceled?
  5. Repeating guests are the guests who stay in the hotel often and are important to brand equity. What percentage of repeating guests cancel?
  6. Many guests have special requirements when booking a hotel room. Do these requirements affect booking cancellation?

Leading Questions:

  1. What are the busiest months in the hotel?
In [47]:
# grouping the data on arrival months and extracting the count of bookings
monthly_data = data.groupby(["arrival_month"])["booking_status"].count()

# creating a dataframe with months and count of customers in each month
monthly_data = pd.DataFrame(
    {"Month": list(monthly_data.index), "Guests": list(monthly_data.values)}
)

# plotting the trend over different months
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
sns.lineplot(data=monthly_data, x="Month", y="Guests")
plt.show()
  • Months 8-10 are the busiest
  1. Which market segment do most of the guests come from?
In [48]:
stacked_barplot(data, "market_segment_type", "booking_status")
booking_status           0      1    All
market_segment_type                     
All                  24390  11885  36275
Online               14739   8475  23214
Offline               7375   3153  10528
Corporate             1797    220   2017
Aviation                88     37    125
Complementary          391      0    391
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • Most guests come from the Online market segment type
  1. Hotel rates are dynamic and change according to demand and customer demographics. What are the differences in room prices in different market segments?
In [49]:
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
sns.boxplot(
    data=data, x="market_segment_type", y="avg_price_per_room", palette="gist_rainbow"
)
plt.show()
  • There are outliers amongst Offline, Online, Corporate, and Complementary market segments

  • The median price for all segments but Complementary is above 50

  • Online prices have the highest median price followed by Aviation, Offline, Corporate, and Complementary
  1. What percentage of bookings are canceled?
In [50]:
# stacked_barplot on arrival month and booking status
stacked_barplot(data, 'arrival_month', 'booking_status')
booking_status      0      1    All
arrival_month                      
All             24390  11885  36275
10               3437   1880   5317
9                3073   1538   4611
8                2325   1488   3813
7                1606   1314   2920
6                1912   1291   3203
4                1741    995   2736
5                1650    948   2598
11               2105    875   2980
3                1658    700   2358
2                1274    430   1704
12               2619    402   3021
1                 990     24   1014
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • 32.76% of bookings are canceled
  1. Repeating guests are the guests who stay in the hotel often and are important to brand equity. What percentage of repeating guests cancel?
In [51]:
# stacked_barplot on repeat guests and booking status
stacked_barplot(data, 'repeated_guest', 'booking_status')
booking_status      0      1    All
repeated_guest                     
All             24390  11885  36275
0               23476  11869  35345
1                 914     16    930
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • 0.13% of repeated guests cancel
  1. Many guests have special requirements when booking a hotel room. Do these requirements affect booking cancellation?
In [52]:
# stacked_barplot on market segment type and booking status
stacked_barplot(data, "market_segment_type", "booking_status")
booking_status           0      1    All
market_segment_type                     
All                  24390  11885  36275
Online               14739   8475  23214
Offline               7375   3153  10528
Corporate             1797    220   2017
Aviation                88     37    125
Complementary          391      0    391
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In [53]:
# boxplot on number of special requests and average price per room
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
sns.boxplot(data, x='no_of_special_requests', y='avg_price_per_room')  ## Complete the code to create boxplot for no of special requests and average price per room (excluding the outliers)
plt.show()
  • As the number of special requests increases, the median value for average price per room also increase
In [54]:
# distribution_plot on average price per room and booking status
distribution_plot_wrt_target(data, "avg_price_per_room", "booking_status")
In [55]:
#distribution_plot on lead time and booking status
distribution_plot_wrt_target(data, 'lead_time', 'booking_status')
In [56]:
# families that traveled together
family_data = data[(data["no_of_children"] >= 0) & (data["no_of_adults"] > 1)]
family_data.shape

family_data["no_of_family_members"] = (
    family_data["no_of_adults"] + family_data["no_of_children"]
)

#stacked_barplot of number of family members and booking status
stacked_barplot(family_data, 'no_of_family_members', 'booking_status')
booking_status            0     1    All
no_of_family_members                    
All                   18456  9985  28441
2                     15506  8213  23719
3                      2425  1368   3793
4                       514   398    912
5                        11     6     17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In [57]:
# customers who stay for at least 1 day at the hotel
stay_data = data[(data["no_of_week_nights"] > 0) & (data["no_of_weekend_nights"] > 0)]
stay_data.shape

stay_data["total_days"] = (
    stay_data["no_of_week_nights"] + stay_data["no_of_weekend_nights"]
)

# stacked_barplot
stacked_barplot(stay_data, 'total_days', 'booking_status')
booking_status      0     1    All
total_days                        
All             10979  6115  17094
3                3689  2183   5872
4                2977  1387   4364
5                1593   738   2331
2                1301   639   1940
6                 566   465   1031
7                 590   383    973
8                 100    79    179
10                 51    58    109
9                  58    53    111
14                  5    27     32
15                  5    26     31
13                  3    15     18
12                  9    15     24
11                 24    15     39
20                  3     8     11
19                  1     5      6
16                  1     5      6
17                  1     4      5
18                  0     3      3
21                  1     3      4
22                  0     2      2
23                  1     1      2
24                  0     1      1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In [58]:
# lineplot of average price per room and arrival month
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
sns.lineplot(data= data, y='avg_price_per_room', x='arrival_month') ## Complete the code to create lineplot between average price per room and arrival month
plt.show()
In [59]:
# outlier detection using boxplot
numeric_columns = data.select_dtypes(include=np.number).columns.tolist()
# dropping booking_status
numeric_columns.remove("booking_status")

plt.figure(figsize=(15, 12))

for i, variable in enumerate(numeric_columns):
    plt.subplot(4, 4, i + 1)
    plt.boxplot(data[variable], whis=1.5)
    plt.tight_layout()
    plt.title(variable)

plt.show()
In [60]:
# split data into train and test

X = data.drop(['booking_status'], axis=1)
Y = data['booking_status']

# adding a constant to X variable
X = sm.add_constant(X)

# creating dummies
X = pd.get_dummies(X, drop_first=True)

# Splitting data in train and test sets
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(
    X, Y, test_size=0.30, random_state=42, stratify=Y
)
In [61]:
print("Shape of Training set : ", X_train.shape)
print("Shape of test set : ", X_test.shape)
print("Percentage of classes in training set:")
print(y_train.value_counts(normalize=True))
print("Percentage of classes in test set:")
print(y_test.value_counts(normalize=True))
Shape of Training set :  (25392, 28)
Shape of test set :  (10883, 28)
Percentage of classes in training set:
0   0.67238
1   0.32762
Name: booking_status, dtype: float64
Percentage of classes in test set:
0   0.67233
1   0.32767
Name: booking_status, dtype: float64

Building a Logistic Regression model¶

In [62]:
# defining a function to compute different metrics to check performance of a classification model built using statsmodels
def model_performance_classification_statsmodels(
    model, predictors, target, threshold=0.5
):
    """
    Function to compute different metrics to check classification model performance

    model: classifier
    predictors: independent variables
    target: dependent variable
    threshold: threshold for classifying the observation as class 1
    """

    # checking which probabilities are greater than threshold
    pred_temp = model.predict(predictors) > threshold
    # rounding off the above values to get classes
    pred = np.round(pred_temp)

    acc = accuracy_score(target, pred)  # to compute Accuracy
    recall = recall_score(target, pred)  # to compute Recall
    precision = precision_score(target, pred)  # to compute Precision
    f1 = f1_score(target, pred)  # to compute F1-score

    # creating a dataframe of metrics
    df_perf = pd.DataFrame(
        {"Accuracy": acc, "Recall": recall, "Precision": precision, "F1": f1,},
        index=[0],
    )

    return df_perf
In [63]:
# defining a function to plot the confusion_matrix of a classification model


def confusion_matrix_statsmodels(model, predictors, target, threshold=0.5):
    """
    To plot the confusion_matrix with percentages

    model: classifier
    predictors: independent variables
    target: dependent variable
    threshold: threshold for classifying the observation as class 1
    """
    y_pred = model.predict(predictors) > threshold
    cm = confusion_matrix(target, y_pred)
    labels = np.asarray(
        [
            ["{0:0.0f}".format(item) + "\n{0:.2%}".format(item / cm.flatten().sum())]
            for item in cm.flatten()
        ]
    ).reshape(2, 2)

    plt.figure(figsize=(6, 4))
    sns.heatmap(cm, annot=labels, fmt="")
    plt.ylabel("True label")
    plt.xlabel("Predicted label")
In [64]:
# fittng logistic regression model
logit = sm.Logit(y_train, X_train.astype(float))
lg = logit.fit(maxiter=500)

print(lg.summary())
Warning: Maximum number of iterations has been exceeded.
         Current function value: 0.426311
         Iterations: 500
                           Logit Regression Results                           
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:         booking_status   No. Observations:                25392
Model:                          Logit   Df Residuals:                    25364
Method:                           MLE   Df Model:                           27
Date:                Fri, 29 Sep 2023   Pseudo R-squ.:                  0.3260
Time:                        22:36:00   Log-Likelihood:                -10825.
converged:                      False   LL-Null:                       -16060.
Covariance Type:            nonrobust   LLR p-value:                     0.000
========================================================================================================
                                           coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                 -934.5315    121.596     -7.686      0.000   -1172.855    -696.208
no_of_adults                             0.0387      0.037      1.032      0.302      -0.035       0.112
no_of_children                           0.0824      0.063      1.315      0.189      -0.040       0.205
no_of_weekend_nights                     0.1497      0.020      7.581      0.000       0.111       0.188
no_of_week_nights                        0.0342      0.012      2.795      0.005       0.010       0.058
required_car_parking_space              -1.5404      0.134    -11.473      0.000      -1.804      -1.277
lead_time                                0.0156      0.000     58.815      0.000       0.015       0.016
arrival_year                             0.4618      0.060      7.664      0.000       0.344       0.580
arrival_month                           -0.0461      0.006     -7.129      0.000      -0.059      -0.033
arrival_date                             0.0007      0.002      0.376      0.707      -0.003       0.005
repeated_guest                          -2.3886      0.600     -3.982      0.000      -3.564      -1.213
no_of_previous_cancellations             0.2311      0.090      2.570      0.010       0.055       0.407
no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled    -0.1411      0.148     -0.955      0.340      -0.431       0.149
avg_price_per_room                       0.0181      0.001     24.539      0.000       0.017       0.019
no_of_special_requests                  -1.4478      0.030    -48.360      0.000      -1.506      -1.389
type_of_meal_plan_Meal Plan 2            0.1822      0.067      2.721      0.007       0.051       0.313
type_of_meal_plan_Meal Plan 3           21.7662   3.45e+04      0.001      0.999   -6.75e+04    6.76e+04
type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected           0.2391      0.053      4.517      0.000       0.135       0.343
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 2          -0.3242      0.132     -2.463      0.014      -0.582      -0.066
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 3           0.8117      1.595      0.509      0.611      -2.314       3.937
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 4          -0.2303      0.053     -4.340      0.000      -0.334      -0.126
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 5          -0.7368      0.217     -3.388      0.001      -1.163      -0.311
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 6          -0.7026      0.151     -4.649      0.000      -0.999      -0.406
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 7          -1.3743      0.321     -4.284      0.000      -2.003      -0.746
market_segment_type_Complementary      -54.7741   8.54e+07  -6.41e-07      1.000   -1.67e+08    1.67e+08
market_segment_type_Corporate           -0.9135      0.272     -3.358      0.001      -1.447      -0.380
market_segment_type_Offline             -1.7910      0.260     -6.889      0.000      -2.301      -1.282
market_segment_type_Online              -0.0326      0.257     -0.127      0.899      -0.537       0.471
========================================================================================================
  • no_of_adults has a P-Value of .302
  • no_of_children has a P-Value of .189
  • arrival_date has a P-Value of .707
  • no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled has a P-Value of .340
  • The aforementioned variables have little significance in determining if a reservation will be canceled.
  • repeated_guest has a negative coefficient reflecting that as the status of the guest's previous reservations increases (made reservations with the hotel before), they are less likely to cancel a reservation.
In [65]:
print("Training performance:")
model_performance_classification_statsmodels(lg, X_train, y_train)
Training performance:
Out[65]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.80372 0.62471 0.73622 0.67590
  • Training Performance:

    • Accuracy: 80.372%
    • Recall: 62.471%
    • Precision: 73.622%
    • F1: 67.590%
  • The relatively high rate of accuracy may be a cause for concern. More testing for multicollinearity and potential pruning may reflect a more reliable model.

Checking Multicollinearity¶

  • In order to make statistical inferences from a logistic regression model, it is important to ensure that there is no multicollinearity present in the data.
In [66]:
def checking_vif(predictors):
    vif = pd.DataFrame()
    vif["feature"] = predictors.columns

    # calculating VIF for each feature
    vif["VIF"] = [
        variance_inflation_factor(predictors.values, i)
        for i in range(len(predictors.columns))
    ]
    return vif
In [67]:
# checking VIF on training data
checking_vif(X_train)
Out[67]:
feature VIF
0 const 39529927.77779
1 no_of_adults 1.34577
2 no_of_children 2.06633
3 no_of_weekend_nights 1.06691
4 no_of_week_nights 1.09400
5 required_car_parking_space 1.03946
6 lead_time 1.38593
7 arrival_year 1.42304
8 arrival_month 1.27173
9 arrival_date 1.00644
10 repeated_guest 1.80617
11 no_of_previous_cancellations 1.34395
12 no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled 1.64880
13 avg_price_per_room 2.03978
14 no_of_special_requests 1.25389
15 type_of_meal_plan_Meal Plan 2 1.26543
16 type_of_meal_plan_Meal Plan 3 1.02560
17 type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected 1.27672
18 room_type_reserved_Room_Type 2 1.09777
19 room_type_reserved_Room_Type 3 1.00051
20 room_type_reserved_Room_Type 4 1.36522
21 room_type_reserved_Room_Type 5 1.02612
22 room_type_reserved_Room_Type 6 2.03860
23 room_type_reserved_Room_Type 7 1.11269
24 market_segment_type_Complementary 4.33289
25 market_segment_type_Corporate 16.43224
26 market_segment_type_Offline 61.52593
27 market_segment_type_Online 68.32179
  • VIF scores all seem low enough to reflect there is no multicollinearity
In [68]:
# initial list of columns
cols = X_train.columns.tolist()

# setting an initial max p-value
max_p_value = 1

while len(cols) > 0:
    # defining the train set
    x_train_aux = X_train[cols]

    # fitting the model
    model = sm.Logit(y_train, x_train_aux).fit(disp=False)

    # getting the p-values and the maximum p-value
    p_values = model.pvalues
    max_p_value = max(p_values)

    # name of the variable with maximum p-value
    feature_with_p_max = p_values.idxmax()

    if max_p_value > 0.05:
        cols.remove(feature_with_p_max)
    else:
        break

selected_features = cols
print(selected_features)
['const', 'no_of_weekend_nights', 'no_of_week_nights', 'required_car_parking_space', 'lead_time', 'arrival_year', 'arrival_month', 'repeated_guest', 'no_of_previous_cancellations', 'avg_price_per_room', 'no_of_special_requests', 'type_of_meal_plan_Meal Plan 2', 'type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected', 'room_type_reserved_Room_Type 2', 'room_type_reserved_Room_Type 4', 'room_type_reserved_Room_Type 5', 'room_type_reserved_Room_Type 6', 'room_type_reserved_Room_Type 7', 'market_segment_type_Offline', 'market_segment_type_Online']
In [69]:
# to specify the train data from which to select the specified columns
X_train1 = X_train[selected_features]

# to specify the test data from which to select the specified columns
X_test1 = X_test[selected_features]
In [70]:
# to train logistic regression X_train1 and y_train
logit2= sm.Logit(y_train, X_train1)

# to fit logistic regression
lg2 = logit2.fit(maxiter=500)

# to print summary of model
print(lg2.summary())
Optimization terminated successfully.
         Current function value: 0.426974
         Iterations 11
                           Logit Regression Results                           
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:         booking_status   No. Observations:                25392
Model:                          Logit   Df Residuals:                    25372
Method:                           MLE   Df Model:                           19
Date:                Fri, 29 Sep 2023   Pseudo R-squ.:                  0.3249
Time:                        22:36:04   Log-Likelihood:                -10842.
converged:                       True   LL-Null:                       -16060.
Covariance Type:            nonrobust   LLR p-value:                     0.000
==================================================================================================
                                     coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                           -934.5150    121.096     -7.717      0.000   -1171.859    -697.171
no_of_weekend_nights               0.1540      0.020      7.823      0.000       0.115       0.193
no_of_week_nights                  0.0372      0.012      3.052      0.002       0.013       0.061
required_car_parking_space        -1.5378      0.134    -11.468      0.000      -1.801      -1.275
lead_time                          0.0156      0.000     59.222      0.000       0.015       0.016
arrival_year                       0.4614      0.060      7.688      0.000       0.344       0.579
arrival_month                     -0.0466      0.006     -7.240      0.000      -0.059      -0.034
repeated_guest                    -2.7053      0.535     -5.060      0.000      -3.753      -1.657
no_of_previous_cancellations       0.2031      0.083      2.434      0.015       0.040       0.367
avg_price_per_room                 0.0185      0.001     25.727      0.000       0.017       0.020
no_of_special_requests            -1.4442      0.030    -48.637      0.000      -1.502      -1.386
type_of_meal_plan_Meal Plan 2      0.1754      0.067      2.624      0.009       0.044       0.306
type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected     0.2424      0.053      4.609      0.000       0.139       0.346
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 2    -0.2861      0.127     -2.246      0.025      -0.536      -0.036
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 4    -0.2231      0.051     -4.348      0.000      -0.324      -0.123
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 5    -0.7500      0.217     -3.454      0.001      -1.176      -0.324
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 6    -0.5937      0.117     -5.072      0.000      -0.823      -0.364
room_type_reserved_Room_Type 7    -1.3265      0.316     -4.200      0.000      -1.945      -0.707
market_segment_type_Offline       -0.9086      0.101     -8.975      0.000      -1.107      -0.710
market_segment_type_Online         0.8479      0.097      8.746      0.000       0.658       1.038
==================================================================================================
  • All P-Values are below .05 reflecting a potentially more reliable model as all relevant variables can be viewed with more confidence in terms of their predictability.
  • After 11 iterations, the model had optimization terminate successfully.
  • Convergence is True
In [71]:
print("Training performance:")
model_performance_classification_statsmodels(lg2, X_train1, y_train)
Training performance:
Out[71]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.80356 0.62483 0.73574 0.67577
  • Training Performance:

    • Accuracy: 80.356%
    • Recall: 62.483%
    • Precision: 73.574%
    • F1: 67.577%
  • Even after relevant variables have a P-Value below .05, training data performance seems virtually unchanged.

  • The model may be overfitting, and may need additional pruning.
In [72]:
# converting coefficients to odds
odds = np.exp(lg2.params)

# finding the percentage change
perc_change_odds = (np.exp(lg2.params) - 1) * 100

# removing limit from number of columns to display
pd.set_option("display.max_columns", None)

# adding the odds to a dataframe
pd.DataFrame({"Odds": odds, "Change_odd%": perc_change_odds}, index=X_train1.columns).T
Out[72]:
const no_of_weekend_nights no_of_week_nights required_car_parking_space lead_time arrival_year arrival_month repeated_guest no_of_previous_cancellations avg_price_per_room no_of_special_requests type_of_meal_plan_Meal Plan 2 type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected room_type_reserved_Room_Type 2 room_type_reserved_Room_Type 4 room_type_reserved_Room_Type 5 room_type_reserved_Room_Type 6 room_type_reserved_Room_Type 7 market_segment_type_Offline market_segment_type_Online
Odds 0.00000 1.16652 1.03795 0.21485 1.01570 1.58628 0.95442 0.06685 1.22518 1.01865 0.23594 1.19169 1.27432 0.75118 0.80005 0.47236 0.55229 0.26542 0.40311 2.33470
Change_odd% -100.00000 16.65155 3.79453 -78.51529 1.56962 58.62799 -4.55754 -93.31465 22.51804 1.86514 -76.40600 19.16916 27.43220 -24.88229 -19.99497 -52.76433 -44.77091 -73.45833 -59.68940 133.47035

Holding all other features constant...

  • no_of_weekend_nights: a 1 unit change in no_of_weekend_nights will increase the odds of a person keeping their reservation by 1.17 times
  • no_of_week_nights: a 1 unit change in no_of_week_nights will increase the odds of a person keeping their reservation by 1.04 times
  • required_car_parking_space: increase by .21 times *lead_time: increase by 1.02 times
  • repeated_guest: increase by .067 times
  • no_of_previous_cancellations: increase by 1.23 times
  • avg_price_per_room: increase by 1.019 times
  • no_of_special_requests: increase by .236 times

Model performance evaluation¶

In [73]:
# view confusion matrix
confusion_matrix_statsmodels(lg2, X_train1, y_train)
In [74]:
print("Training performance:")
log_reg_model_train_perf = model_performance_classification_statsmodels(lg2, X_train1, y_train) ## Complete the code to check performance on X_train1 and y_train
log_reg_model_train_perf
Training performance:
Out[74]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.80356 0.62483 0.73574 0.67577
  • Training Performance:
    • Accuracy: 80.356%
    • Recall: 62.483%
    • Precision: 73.574%
    • F1: 67.577%
In [75]:
# ROC AUC on training set
logit_roc_auc_train = roc_auc_score(y_train, lg2.predict(X_train1))
fpr, tpr, thresholds = roc_curve(y_train, lg2.predict(X_train1))
plt.figure(figsize=(7, 5))
plt.plot(fpr, tpr, label="Logistic Regression (area = %0.2f)" % logit_roc_auc_train)
plt.plot([0, 1], [0, 1], "r--")
plt.xlim([0.0, 1.0])
plt.ylim([0.0, 1.01])
plt.xlabel("False Positive Rate")
plt.ylabel("True Positive Rate")
plt.title("Receiver operating characteristic")
plt.legend(loc="lower right")
plt.show()
In [76]:
# Optimal threshold as per AUC-ROC curve
# The optimal cut off would be where tpr is high and fpr is low
fpr, tpr, thresholds = roc_curve(y_train, lg2.predict(X_train1))

optimal_idx = np.argmax(tpr - fpr)
optimal_threshold_auc_roc = thresholds[optimal_idx]
print(optimal_threshold_auc_roc)
0.2952481051748547
  • The optimal threshold auc roc is .2952 or 29.52%.
In [77]:
# creating confusion matrix
confusion_matrix_statsmodels(
    lg2, X_train1, y_train
)
In [78]:
# checking model performance for this model
log_reg_model_train_perf_threshold_auc_roc = model_performance_classification_statsmodels(
    lg2, X_train1, y_train, threshold=optimal_threshold_auc_roc
)
print("Training performance:")
log_reg_model_train_perf_threshold_auc_roc
Training performance:
Out[78]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.76831 0.80551 0.61107 0.69494
  • Training Performance:

    • Accuracy: 76.831%
    • Recall: 80.551%
    • Precision: 61.107%
    • F1: 69.494%

    *After identifying the optimal threshold AUC ROC, recall improves to 80.551% which seems more reliable.

In [79]:
# using precision recall for a better threshold
y_scores = lg2.predict(X_train1)
prec, rec, tre = precision_recall_curve(y_train, y_scores,)


def plot_prec_recall_vs_tresh(precisions, recalls, thresholds):
    plt.plot(thresholds, precisions[:-1], "b--", label="precision")
    plt.plot(thresholds, recalls[:-1], "g--", label="recall")
    plt.xlabel("Threshold")
    plt.legend(loc="upper left")
    plt.ylim([0, 1])


plt.figure(figsize=(10, 7))
plot_prec_recall_vs_tresh(prec, rec, tre)
plt.show()
In [80]:
# setting the threshold
optimal_threshold_curve = 0.42
  • optimal threshold curve is .42
In [81]:
# creating confusion matrix
confusion_matrix_statsmodels(
    lg2, X_train1, y_train, threshold=optimal_threshold_curve
) ## Complete the code to create the confusion matrix for X_train1 and y_train with optimal_threshold_curve as threshold
In [82]:
log_reg_model_train_perf_threshold_curve = model_performance_classification_statsmodels(
    lg2, X_train1, y_train, threshold=optimal_threshold_curve
)
print("Training performance:")
log_reg_model_train_perf_threshold_curve
Training performance:
Out[82]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.80080 0.69696 0.69562 0.69629
  • Training Performance:

    • Accuracy: 80.08%
    • Recall: 69.696%
    • Precision: 69.562%
    • F1: 69.629%

    *After identifying the optimal threshold curve, recall becomes 69.696% which seems more reliable.

In [83]:
# creating confusion matrix
confusion_matrix_statsmodels(lg2, X_test1, y_test) ## Complete the code to create confusion matrix for X_test1 and y_test
In [84]:
log_reg_model_test_perf = model_performance_classification_statsmodels(lg2, X_test1, y_test)

print("Test performance:")
log_reg_model_test_perf
Test performance:
Out[84]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.80851 0.64554 0.73735 0.68840
  • Test Performance:
    • Accuracy: 80.0851%
    • Recall: 64.554%
    • Precision: 73.735%
    • F1: 68.84%
In [85]:
logit_roc_auc_train = roc_auc_score(y_test, lg2.predict(X_test1))
fpr, tpr, thresholds = roc_curve(y_test, lg2.predict(X_test1))
plt.figure(figsize=(7, 5))
plt.plot(fpr, tpr, label="Logistic Regression (area = %0.2f)" % logit_roc_auc_train)
plt.plot([0, 1], [0, 1], "r--")
plt.xlim([0.0, 1.0])
plt.ylim([0.0, 1.01])
plt.xlabel("False Positive Rate")
plt.ylabel("True Positive Rate")
plt.title("Receiver operating characteristic")
plt.legend(loc="lower right")
plt.show()
In [86]:
# creating confusion matrix
confusion_matrix_statsmodels(lg2, X_test1, y_test, threshold=optimal_threshold_auc_roc) ## Complete the code to create confusion matrix for X_test1 and y_test using optimal_threshold_auc_roc as threshold
In [87]:
# checking model performance for this model
log_reg_model_test_perf_threshold_auc_roc = model_performance_classification_statsmodels(
    lg2, X_test1, y_test, threshold=optimal_threshold_auc_roc
)
print("Test performance:")
log_reg_model_test_perf_threshold_auc_roc
Test performance:
Out[87]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.76633 0.80454 0.60848 0.69291
In [88]:
# creating confusion matrix
confusion_matrix_statsmodels(lg2, X_test1, y_test, threshold=optimal_threshold_curve) ## Complete the code to create confusion matrix for X_test1 and y_test using optimal_threshold_curve as threshold
In [89]:
log_reg_model_test_perf_threshold_curve = model_performance_classification_statsmodels(
    lg2, X_test1, y_test, threshold=optimal_threshold_curve
)
print("Test performance:")
log_reg_model_test_perf_threshold_curve
Test performance:
Out[89]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.80217 0.70864 0.69404 0.70126

Final Model Summary¶

In [90]:
# training performance comparison

models_train_comp_df = pd.concat(
    [
        log_reg_model_train_perf.T,
        log_reg_model_train_perf_threshold_auc_roc.T,
        log_reg_model_train_perf_threshold_curve.T,
    ],
    axis=1,
)
models_train_comp_df.columns = [
    "Logistic Regression-default Threshold",
    "Logistic Regression-0.37 Threshold",
    "Logistic Regression-0.42 Threshold",
]

print("Training performance comparison:")
models_train_comp_df
Training performance comparison:
Out[90]:
Logistic Regression-default Threshold Logistic Regression-0.37 Threshold Logistic Regression-0.42 Threshold
Accuracy 0.80356 0.76831 0.80080
Recall 0.62483 0.80551 0.69696
Precision 0.73574 0.61107 0.69562
F1 0.67577 0.69494 0.69629
In [91]:
# testing performance comparison

models_test_comp_df = pd.concat(
    [
        log_reg_model_test_perf.T,
        log_reg_model_test_perf_threshold_auc_roc.T,
        log_reg_model_test_perf_threshold_curve.T,
    ],
    axis=1,
)
models_test_comp_df.columns = [
    "Logistic Regression-default Threshold (0.5)",
    "Logistic Regression-0.76 Threshold",
    "Logistic Regression-0.58 Threshold",
]

print("Test set performance comparison:")
models_test_comp_df
Test set performance comparison:
Out[91]:
Logistic Regression-default Threshold (0.5) Logistic Regression-0.76 Threshold Logistic Regression-0.58 Threshold
Accuracy 0.80851 0.76633 0.80217
Recall 0.64554 0.80454 0.70864
Precision 0.73735 0.60848 0.69404
F1 0.68840 0.69291 0.70126

Building a Decision Tree model¶

In [92]:
# split data
X = data.drop(["booking_status"], axis=1)
Y = data["booking_status"]

# get dummies
X = pd.get_dummies(X, drop_first=True)

# Splitting data in train and test sets
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, Y, test_size=.30, random_state=1) ## Complete the code to split the data into train test in the ratio 70:30 with random_state = 1
In [93]:
print("Shape of Training set : ", X_train.shape)
print("Shape of test set : ", X_test.shape)
print("Percentage of classes in training set:")
print(y_train.value_counts(normalize=True))
print("Percentage of classes in test set:")
print(y_test.value_counts(normalize=True))
Shape of Training set :  (25392, 27)
Shape of test set :  (10883, 27)
Percentage of classes in training set:
0   0.67064
1   0.32936
Name: booking_status, dtype: float64
Percentage of classes in test set:
0   0.67638
1   0.32362
Name: booking_status, dtype: float64
  • The training and testing data seem suitable in terms of the data used to build the model.
In [94]:
# defining a function to compute different metrics to check performance of a classification model built using sklearn
def model_performance_classification_sklearn(model, predictors, target):
    """
    Function to compute different metrics to check classification model performance

    model: classifier
    predictors: independent variables
    target: dependent variable
    """

    # predicting using the independent variables
    pred = model.predict(predictors)

    acc = accuracy_score(target, pred)  # to compute Accuracy
    recall = recall_score(target, pred)  # to compute Recall
    precision = precision_score(target, pred)  # to compute Precision
    f1 = f1_score(target, pred)  # to compute F1-score

    # creating a dataframe of metrics
    df_perf = pd.DataFrame(
        {"Accuracy": acc, "Recall": recall, "Precision": precision, "F1": f1,},
        index=[0],
    )

    return df_perf
In [95]:
def confusion_matrix_sklearn(model, predictors, target):
    """
    To plot the confusion_matrix with percentages

    model: classifier
    predictors: independent variables
    target: dependent variable
    """
    y_pred = model.predict(predictors)
    cm = confusion_matrix(target, y_pred)
    labels = np.asarray(
        [
            ["{0:0.0f}".format(item) + "\n{0:.2%}".format(item / cm.flatten().sum())]
            for item in cm.flatten()
        ]
    ).reshape(2, 2)

    plt.figure(figsize=(6, 4))
    sns.heatmap(cm, annot=labels, fmt="")
    plt.ylabel("True label")
    plt.xlabel("Predicted label")
In [96]:
# building a decision tree model
dTree = DecisionTreeClassifier(criterion='gini', random_state=42)

# fit th model around training data
dTree.fit(X_train, y_train)
Out[96]:
DecisionTreeClassifier(random_state=42)
In a Jupyter environment, please rerun this cell to show the HTML representation or trust the notebook.
On GitHub, the HTML representation is unable to render, please try loading this page with nbviewer.org.
DecisionTreeClassifier(random_state=42)
In [97]:
# to score decision tree
print('Accuracy on training set : ', dTree.score(X_train, y_train))
print('Accuracy on test set : ', dTree.score(X_test, y_test))
Accuracy on training set :  0.994210775047259
Accuracy on test set :  0.8730129559864008
In [98]:
# to create confusion matrix on training data
confusion_matrix_sklearn(dTree, X_train, y_train)
In [99]:
# to check performance on training set
decision_tree_perf_train = model_performance_classification_sklearn(
    dTree, X_train, y_train
)
decision_tree_perf_train
Out[99]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.99421 0.98661 0.99578 0.99117
  • Decision Tree Train Performance:

    • Accuracy: 99.421%
    • Recall: 98.661%
    • Precision: 99.578%
    • F1: 99.117%

    *All performance data on the training set seems to be overfit.

In [100]:
# to create confusion matrix on test data
confusion_matrix_sklearn(dTree, X_test, y_test)
In [101]:
# to check performance on test set
decision_tree_perf_test = model_performance_classification_sklearn(dTree, X_test, y_test)
decision_tree_perf_test
Out[101]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.87301 0.81119 0.79938 0.80524
  • Decision Tree Test Performance:

    • Accuracy: 87.301%
    • Recall: 81.119%
    • Precision: 79.938%
    • F1: 80.524%

    *Performance data for test data may be reliable. Further exploration is needed.

Do we need to prune the tree?¶

In [102]:
# to check important features before pruning
feature_names = list(X_train.columns)
importances = dTree.feature_importances_
indices = np.argsort(importances)

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 8))
plt.title("Feature Importances")
plt.barh(range(len(indices)), importances[indices], color="blue", align="center")
plt.yticks(range(len(indices)), [feature_names[i] for i in indices])
plt.xlabel("Relative Importance")
plt.show()
  • The top 3 most important features that seem to have an impact on booking status are lead_time, avg_price_per_room, and market_segment_type_Online.
In [103]:
# Choose the type of classifier.
estimator = DecisionTreeClassifier(random_state=1, class_weight="balanced")

# Grid of parameters to choose from
parameters = {
    "max_depth": np.arange(2, 7, 2),
    "max_leaf_nodes": [50, 75, 150, 250],
    "min_samples_split": [10, 30, 50, 70],
}

# Type of scoring used to compare parameter combinations
acc_scorer = make_scorer(f1_score)

# Run the grid search
grid_obj = GridSearchCV(estimator, parameters, scoring=acc_scorer, cv=5)
grid_obj = grid_obj.fit(X_train, y_train)

# Set the clf to the best combination of parameters
estimator = grid_obj.best_estimator_

# Fit the best algorithm to the data.
estimator.fit(X_train, y_train)
Out[103]:
DecisionTreeClassifier(class_weight='balanced', max_depth=6, max_leaf_nodes=50,
                       min_samples_split=10, random_state=1)
In a Jupyter environment, please rerun this cell to show the HTML representation or trust the notebook.
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DecisionTreeClassifier(class_weight='balanced', max_depth=6, max_leaf_nodes=50,
                       min_samples_split=10, random_state=1)
In [104]:
# confusion matrix for training data
confusion_matrix_sklearn(dTree, X_train, y_train)
In [105]:
# to check performance on training set
decision_tree_tune_perf_train = model_performance_classification_sklearn(dTree, X_train, y_train)
decision_tree_tune_perf_train
Out[105]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.99421 0.98661 0.99578 0.99117
  • Training Set Performance for Decision Tree with 'balanced' class weight:
    • Accuracy: 99.421%
    • Recall: 98.661%
    • Precision: 99.578%
    • F1: 99.117%
In [106]:
plt.figure(figsize=(20, 10))
out = tree.plot_tree(
    estimator,
    feature_names=feature_names,
    filled=True,
    fontsize=9,
    node_ids=False,
    class_names=None,
)
# below code will add arrows to the decision tree split if they are missing
for o in out:
    arrow = o.arrow_patch
    if arrow is not None:
        arrow.set_edgecolor("black")
        arrow.set_linewidth(1)
plt.show()
  • The first few nodes being different colors than the root node display positive signs that the model may be efficient.
In [107]:
# Text report showing the rules of a decision tree -
print(tree.export_text(estimator, feature_names=feature_names, show_weights=True))
|--- lead_time <= 151.50
|   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 0.50
|   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online <= 0.50
|   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 90.50
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 196.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [1736.39, 133.59] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  196.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 24.29] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 68.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [960.27, 223.16] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  68.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [129.73, 160.92] class: 1
|   |   |   |--- lead_time >  90.50
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 117.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 93.58
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [214.72, 227.72] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  93.58
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [82.76, 285.41] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  117.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [87.23, 81.98] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [228.14, 48.58] class: 0
|   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online >  0.50
|   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 13.50
|   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 99.44
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [92.45, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [363.83, 132.08] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  99.44
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [219.94, 85.01] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [132.71, 280.85] class: 1
|   |   |   |--- lead_time >  13.50
|   |   |   |   |--- required_car_parking_space <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 71.92
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [158.80, 159.40] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  71.92
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [850.67, 3543.28] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- required_car_parking_space >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [48.46, 1.52] class: 0
|   |--- no_of_special_requests >  0.50
|   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 1.50
|   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 102.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [697.09, 9.11] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [15.66, 9.11] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  102.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [32.06, 19.74] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [44.73, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [498.03, 44.03] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [258.71, 63.76] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- required_car_parking_space <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2512.51, 1451.32] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- required_car_parking_space >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [134.20, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  1.50
|   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 90.50
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [1585.04, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [180.42, 57.69] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [52.19, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |--- lead_time >  90.50
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [184.90, 56.17] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [106.61, 106.27] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [67.10, 0.00] class: 0
|--- lead_time >  151.50
|   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 100.04
|   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 0.50
|   |   |   |--- no_of_adults <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 163.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 24.29] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  163.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [257.96, 62.24] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [8.95, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 97.16] class: 1
|   |   |   |--- no_of_adults >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 82.47
|   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.98, 282.37] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [213.97, 385.60] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  82.47
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [23.86, 1030.80] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.22, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  0.50
|   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 180.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 159.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [7.46, 7.59] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  159.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [37.28, 4.55] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  180.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [20.13, 212.54] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [8.95, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [231.12, 110.82] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [19.38, 34.92] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 348.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [106.61, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  348.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.96, 4.55] class: 0
|   |--- avg_price_per_room >  100.04
|   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 3200.19] class: 1
|   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |--- weights: [23.11, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- weights: [35.04, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 24.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  24.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 22.77] class: 1

In [108]:
# importance of features in the tree building

importances = estimator.feature_importances_
indices = np.argsort(importances)

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 8))
plt.title("Feature Importances")
plt.barh(range(len(indices)), importances[indices], color="blue", align="center")
plt.yticks(range(len(indices)), [feature_names[i] for i in indices])
plt.xlabel("Relative Importance")
plt.show()
In [109]:
# to cost complexity prune
clf = DecisionTreeClassifier(random_state=1, class_weight="balanced")
path = clf.cost_complexity_pruning_path(X_train, y_train)
ccp_alphas, impurities = abs(path.ccp_alphas), path.impurities
In [110]:
pd.DataFrame(path)
Out[110]:
ccp_alphas impurities
0 0.00000 0.00838
1 0.00000 0.00838
2 0.00000 0.00838
3 0.00000 0.00838
4 0.00000 0.00838
... ... ...
1839 0.00890 0.32806
1840 0.00980 0.33786
1841 0.01272 0.35058
1842 0.03412 0.41882
1843 0.08118 0.50000

1844 rows × 2 columns

In [111]:
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 5))
ax.plot(ccp_alphas[:-1], impurities[:-1], marker="o", drawstyle="steps-post")
ax.set_xlabel("effective alpha")
ax.set_ylabel("total impurity of leaves")
ax.set_title("Total Impurity vs effective alpha for training set")
plt.show()
In [127]:
# train decision tree using effective alphas
clfs = []
for ccp_alpha in ccp_alphas:
    clf = DecisionTreeClassifier(
        random_state=42, ccp_alpha=ccp_alpha, class_weight="balanced"
    )
    clf.fit(X_train, y_train)
    clfs.append(clf)
print(
    "Number of nodes in the last tree is: {} with ccp_alpha: {}".format(
        clfs[-1].tree_.node_count, ccp_alphas[-1]
    )
)
Number of nodes in the last tree is: 3 with ccp_alpha: 0.034120904381342354
In [113]:
clfs = clfs[:-1]
ccp_alphas = ccp_alphas[:-1]

node_counts = [clf.tree_.node_count for clf in clfs]
depth = [clf.tree_.max_depth for clf in clfs]
fig, ax = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(10, 7))
ax[0].plot(ccp_alphas, node_counts, marker="o", drawstyle="steps-post")
ax[0].set_xlabel("alpha")
ax[0].set_ylabel("number of nodes")
ax[0].set_title("Number of nodes vs alpha")
ax[1].plot(ccp_alphas, depth, marker="o", drawstyle="steps-post")
ax[1].set_xlabel("alpha")
ax[1].set_ylabel("depth of tree")
ax[1].set_title("Depth vs alpha")
fig.tight_layout()
In [114]:
# view F1 Score v. alpha for training and testing sets
f1_train = []
for clf in clfs:
    pred_train = clf.predict(X_train)
    values_train = f1_score(y_train, pred_train)
    f1_train.append(values_train)

f1_test = []
for clf in clfs:
    pred_test = clf.predict(X_test)
    values_test = f1_score(y_test, pred_test)
    f1_test.append(values_test)
In [115]:
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(15, 5))
ax.set_xlabel("alpha")
ax.set_ylabel("F1 Score")
ax.set_title("F1 Score vs alpha for training and testing sets")
ax.plot(ccp_alphas, f1_train, marker="o", label="train", drawstyle="steps-post")
ax.plot(ccp_alphas, f1_test, marker="o", label="test", drawstyle="steps-post")
ax.legend()
plt.show()
In [116]:
index_best_model = np.argmax(f1_test)
best_model = clfs[index_best_model]
print(best_model)
DecisionTreeClassifier(ccp_alpha=0.00012267633155167043,
                       class_weight='balanced', random_state=1)
In [117]:
# to create confusion matrix on training set (best_model)
confusion_matrix_sklearn(best_model, X_train, y_train)
In [118]:
# to test performance on training set (best_model)
decision_tree_post_perf_train = model_performance_classification_sklearn(
    best_model, X_train, y_train
)
decision_tree_post_perf_train
Out[118]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.89954 0.90303 0.81274 0.85551
  • Training Set Performance for Decision Tree for best fit model:
    • Accuracy: 89.954%
    • Recall: 90.303%
    • Precision: 81.274%
    • F1: 85.551%
In [119]:
# to create confusion matrix on test set (best_model)
confusion_matrix_sklearn(best_model, X_test, y_test)
In [120]:
# to test performance on test set (best model)
decision_tree_post_test = model_performance_classification_sklearn(
    best_model, X_test, y_test
)
decision_tree_post_test
Out[120]:
Accuracy Recall Precision F1
0 0.86879 0.85576 0.76614 0.80848
  • Test Set Performance for Decision Tree for best fit model:

    • Accuracy: 86.879%
    • Recall: 85.576%
    • Precision: 76.614%
    • F1: 80.848%
  • The aforementioned performance data seems more reliable after pruning. All 4 variables are relatively close to the training set, but the model does not seem to be overfit.

In [121]:
plt.figure(figsize=(20, 10))

out = tree.plot_tree(
    best_model,
    feature_names=feature_names,
    filled=True,
    fontsize=9,
    node_ids=False,
    class_names=None,
)
for o in out:
    arrow = o.arrow_patch
    if arrow is not None:
        arrow.set_edgecolor("black")
        arrow.set_linewidth(1)
plt.show()
In [122]:
# Text report showing the rules of a decision tree -

print(tree.export_text(best_model, feature_names=feature_names, show_weights=True))
|--- lead_time <= 151.50
|   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 0.50
|   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online <= 0.50
|   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 90.50
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 196.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 16.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 68.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [207.26, 10.63] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  68.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 29.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 2
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 5
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  29.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.24, 7.59] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  16.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 135.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 4
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_previous_bookings_not_canceled >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [11.18, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [21.62, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  135.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 12.14] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [1199.59, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  196.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 24.29] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 68.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 63.29
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 20.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [41.75, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 3.04] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  20.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 59.75
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 23.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [1.49, 12.14] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  23.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [14.91, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  59.75
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 44.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 59.21] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  44.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  63.29
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 59.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  59.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 2
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [20.13, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 15.18] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [413.04, 27.33] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  68.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 99.98
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 62.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [15.66, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  62.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 80.38
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [8.20, 25.81] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  80.38
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [55.17, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 73.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 4.55] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  73.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [21.62, 4.55] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  99.98
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year <= 2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [8.95, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year >  2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 132.43
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [9.69, 122.97] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  132.43
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [6.71, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |--- lead_time >  90.50
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 117.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 93.58
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 75.07
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 58.75
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.96, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  58.75
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [4.47, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.24, 118.41] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 4
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [31.31, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [23.11, 6.07] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.96, 9.11] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  75.07
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [59.64, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [1.49, 16.70] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 86.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.24, 16.70] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  86.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [8.95, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 22.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [44.73, 4.55] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  22.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  93.58
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [16.40, 39.47] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [20.13, 6.07] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 102.09
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.22, 144.22] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  102.09
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 109.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 16.70] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [33.55, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  109.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 124.25
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.98, 75.91] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  124.25
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  117.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [38.02, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 93.58
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 65.38
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 4.55] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  65.38
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [24.60, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  93.58
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 28.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [14.91, 72.87] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  28.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [9.69, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [84.25, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 125.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 90.85
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 87.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [13.42, 13.66] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  87.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 15.18] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  90.85
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [10.44, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  125.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 19.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [58.15, 18.22] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  19.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [61.88, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online >  0.50
|   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 13.50
|   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 99.44
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [92.45, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 70.05
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [31.31, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  70.05
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [38.77, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 2
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [6.71, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [34.30, 40.99] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 19.74] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 74.21
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 3.04] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  74.21
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [9.69, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [4.47, 10.63] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [155.07, 6.07] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 10.63] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [7.46, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  99.44
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 202.67
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [63.37, 30.36] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 20.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [115.56, 12.14] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  20.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 24.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  24.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [28.33, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 6.07] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  202.67
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 22.77] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 119.25
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 118.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [18.64, 59.21] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  118.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [8.20, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  119.25
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [34.30, 171.55] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year <= 2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [26.09, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year >  2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 14.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [9.69, 36.43] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  14.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 208.67
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 2
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  208.67
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 4.55] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [15.66, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |--- lead_time >  13.50
|   |   |   |   |--- required_car_parking_space <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 71.92
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 59.43
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 84.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [50.70, 7.59] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  84.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year <= 2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 27.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 131.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 15.18] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  131.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.24, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  27.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year >  2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [10.44, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  59.43
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 25.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [20.88, 6.07] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  25.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 71.34
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 68.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [15.66, 78.94] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  68.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 102.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  102.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [12.67, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  71.34
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [11.18, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  71.92
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year <= 2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 65.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 120.45
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [79.77, 9.11] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  120.45
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 12.14] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  65.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Meal Plan 2 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 27.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [16.40, 47.06] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  27.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Meal Plan 2 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 63.76] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year >  2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 104.31
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 25.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [16.40, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [38.77, 118.41] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [23.11, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  25.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [39.51, 185.21] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 6
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [73.81, 411.41] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  104.31
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 10.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- room_type_reserved_Room_Type 5 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 195.30
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 9
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  195.30
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 138.15] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- room_type_reserved_Room_Type 5 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 22.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [11.18, 6.07] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  22.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 9.11] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  10.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 168.06
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 22.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 2
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  22.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [17.15, 83.50] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  168.06
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [12.67, 6.07] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- required_car_parking_space >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [48.46, 1.52] class: 0
|   |--- no_of_special_requests >  0.50
|   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 1.50
|   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 102.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [697.09, 9.11] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 63.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [15.66, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  63.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 7.59] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  102.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 105.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 6.07] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  105.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [31.31, 13.66] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [44.73, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 10.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [498.03, 40.99] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  10.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 3.04] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 13.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [58.90, 36.43] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [33.55, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  13.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [123.76, 9.11] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- type_of_meal_plan_Not Selected >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 126.33
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [32.80, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  126.33
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [9.69, 13.66] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- required_car_parking_space <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 118.55
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 61.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [70.08, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 11
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  4.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 6
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [126.74, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  61.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year <= 2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [4.47, 57.69] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 66.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.22, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  66.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 5
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year >  2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 71.93
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [54.43, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  71.93
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 10
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 4
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 6
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  118.55
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 19.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 177.15
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 6
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  177.15
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 6.07] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  19.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 27.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 121.20
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [18.64, 6.07] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  121.20
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 4
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  27.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 55.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 2
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  55.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 2
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year <= 2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [11.93, 10.63] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [37.28, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year >  2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 119.20
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [9.69, 28.84] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  119.20
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 12
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 100.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [49.95, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  100.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 18.22] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- required_car_parking_space >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [134.20, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  1.50
|   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 90.50
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [1585.04, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 6.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [32.06, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  6.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [23.11, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 93.09
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 2
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  93.09
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [77.54, 27.33] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [19.38, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 3.04] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [52.19, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |--- lead_time >  90.50
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 202.95
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year <= 2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [1.49, 9.11] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [8.20, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year >  2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 150.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [175.20, 28.84] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  150.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 4.55] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  202.95
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 10.63] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 153.15
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- room_type_reserved_Room_Type 2 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 71.12
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  71.12
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 90.42
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [12.67, 7.59] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  90.42
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [64.12, 60.72] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- room_type_reserved_Room_Type 2 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.96, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  153.15
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [12.67, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [67.10, 0.00] class: 0
|--- lead_time >  151.50
|   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 100.04
|   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 0.50
|   |   |   |--- no_of_adults <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 163.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 5.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.98, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  5.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 24.29] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  163.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 341.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 173.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [46.97, 9.11] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights <= 1.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 13.66] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights >  1.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.24, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  173.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 4.55] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [6.71, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [188.62, 7.59] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  341.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [13.42, 27.33] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 285.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [8.20, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  285.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 3.04] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 97.16] class: 1
|   |   |   |--- no_of_adults >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 82.47
|   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.98, 282.37] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 244.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 166.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.24, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  166.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.24, 57.69] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [17.89, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [11.18, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 12.14] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [75.30, 12.14] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  244.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year <= 2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [25.35, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_year >  2017.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 80.38
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [11.18, 264.15] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  80.38
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [7.46, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [46.22, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  82.47
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 324.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- room_type_reserved_Room_Type 4 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [7.46, 986.78] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- room_type_reserved_Room_Type 4 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 10.63] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [4.47, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 19.74] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.22, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  324.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 89.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.96, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  89.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.75, 13.66] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.22, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  0.50
|   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 180.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 159.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.96, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  8.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [1.49, 7.59] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  159.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [1.49, 3.04] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [35.79, 1.52] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  180.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [12.67, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_adults >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 3.04] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Online >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [7.46, 206.46] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [8.95, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |--- no_of_weekend_nights >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room <= 76.48
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [46.97, 4.55] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- avg_price_per_room >  76.48
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 6.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 27.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 233.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 152.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [1.49, 4.55] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  152.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  233.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [23.11, 19.74] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  27.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights <= 1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [2.24, 15.18] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  1.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 269.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- truncated branch of depth 3
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  269.00
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 4.55] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- no_of_week_nights >  6.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [4.47, 13.66] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 14.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [8.20, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  14.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [11.18, 31.88] class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- market_segment_type_Offline >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time <= 348.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [106.61, 3.04] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- lead_time >  348.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [5.96, 4.55] class: 0
|   |--- avg_price_per_room >  100.04
|   |   |--- arrival_month <= 11.50
|   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |--- weights: [0.00, 3200.19] class: 1
|   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |--- weights: [23.11, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |--- arrival_month >  11.50
|   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- weights: [35.04, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |--- no_of_special_requests >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date <= 24.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 0.00] class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- arrival_date >  24.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- weights: [3.73, 22.77] class: 1

In [123]:
importances = best_model.feature_importances_
indices = np.argsort(importances)

plt.figure(figsize=(12, 12))
plt.title("Feature Importances")
plt.barh(range(len(indices)), importances[indices], color="blue", align="center")
plt.yticks(range(len(indices)), [feature_names[i] for i in indices])
plt.xlabel("Relative Importance")
plt.show()

Model Performance Comparison and Conclusions¶

In [124]:
# training performance comparison

models_train_comp_df = pd.concat(
    [
        decision_tree_perf_train.T,
        decision_tree_tune_perf_train.T,
        decision_tree_post_perf_train.T,
    ],
    axis=1,
)
models_train_comp_df.columns = [
    "Decision Tree sklearn",
    "Decision Tree (Pre-Pruning)",
    "Decision Tree (Post-Pruning)",
]
print("Training performance comparison:")
models_train_comp_df
Training performance comparison:
Out[124]:
Decision Tree sklearn Decision Tree (Pre-Pruning) Decision Tree (Post-Pruning)
Accuracy 0.99421 0.99421 0.89954
Recall 0.98661 0.98661 0.90303
Precision 0.99578 0.99578 0.81274
F1 0.99117 0.99117 0.85551
In [125]:
# testing performance comparison

models_test_comp_df = pd.concat(
    [
        log_reg_model_test_perf.T,
        log_reg_model_test_perf_threshold_auc_roc.T,
        log_reg_model_test_perf_threshold_curve.T,
    ],
    axis=1,
)
models_test_comp_df.columns = [
    "Logistic Regression-default Threshold (0.5)",
    "Logistic Regression-0.76 Threshold",
    "Logistic Regression-0.58 Threshold",
]

print("Test set performance comparison:")
models_test_comp_df
Test set performance comparison:
Out[125]:
Logistic Regression-default Threshold (0.5) Logistic Regression-0.76 Threshold Logistic Regression-0.58 Threshold
Accuracy 0.80851 0.76633 0.80217
Recall 0.64554 0.80454 0.70864
Precision 0.73735 0.60848 0.69404
F1 0.68840 0.69291 0.70126

Actionable Insights and Recommendations¶

  • What profitable policies for cancellations and refunds can the hotel adopt?
  • What other recommedations would you suggest to the hotel?
  • As a firm, it would be important to review lead time, market segment type, and average price per room closer to determine what factors lead to their relevance being higher than other variables.
  • Repeat guests have shown a low likelihood of cancellation so it may be advantageous to market towards repeat business, offer an incentive to invite a friend in order for the friend to receive a complementary reservation. With the complementary reservation, the likelihood of cancellation on the complementary guest's next visit should be minimal.
  • To incentivize kept reservations, the firm may consider exploring higher cancellation consequences (higher fees, longer notice of cancellation time, etc.)
In [126]:
#!jupyter nbconvert --to html SLF_Project_FullCode.ipynb